Português
Español
Français
русский
Market Wrap
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The US dollar continues to feel heavy, and the price action and momentum are still pointing to lower prices but the refusal of the $90 level to give up its support is proving to be a small miracle. The US economy is strengthening against most other nations, but the underlying macro conditions are weakening the US dollar. We may tread water until the FOMC meeting minutes and therefore some small-time frame chop could lead to retail trader’s frustration.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
Gold has broken out of a major down trend, crossing the $1850 price level with good momentum and does not look likely to give back any gains for the rest of the US session. If Gold can close above $1880 it will have cleared the balance area that formed during January 2021 and will likely cut through prices to $1950, as there was very little market structure created at the end of 2020 during the drop. There is a double top in the price action between $1960 – $1956, which will be a liquidity zone trader will target, as a resistance zone like that should have many stops just above.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
At the other end of the scale the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have lost favour with traders at the start of the week, even though the US dollar is weak against most currencies and commodities.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator shows that 72% of traders on the platform are bearish the currency pair, and with a continuation in the US dollars decline, these traders should get squeezed out of their position. The NZDUSD price action currently shows that price is trading in the middle of structure, so a break higher than the previous swing low would act as the next bullish signal for a trending move higher. Though we could go sideways for a while, as the NZD and USD are not exactly thriving and therefor cancel each other out.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
With a lower US dollar oil has been able to hold onto last week’s gains and push forwards retracing last Thursdays down move fully. This opens bullish momentum traders to try and capture the continuation up to the years highs, with little change in the fundamentals.
What oil traders would like to see in this week’s data is growing demand from a better situation developing in places like Japan and India but also a draw on supplies.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The pound is doing its best to work through some ranges but is being hampered by previous market structure to the upside. A break above 1.4170 will allow the pair to breath and we could accelerate up to 1.4200 but until then I am expecting more chop and false breaks on the lower time frames.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator shows that the EURUSD traders are still trying to short the pair, while the ECB worries about the euro’s appreciation against the greenback.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
Today’s price action in the EURUSD shows a break to the upside and then a deep retracement into the 50 period ema, on the 30-minute chart. I fully expect the 1.2170 level to get tested again but until the US dollar falls, 1.2200 may be a tad too far for the euro bulls to get to.
Tomorrow we will have data from the Australian RBA minutes, UK Average earnings, US Building Permits, and details of the EU’s PEPP purchases.
