Forex Analysis
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
Considering the euro is more exposed to the Ukrainian conflict than the pound, yesterday’s encouraging signs towards some de-escalation was a net positive for EURGBP. The pair briefly rose above 0.8400 and all March losses were erased. But this market is volatile, and we may be back to the lows again by the end of the week. According to analysts, the EURGBP is overvalued by ~1%, which suggests the euro is pricing in a risk premium with regards to the Ukraine conflict, as monetary policy divergence between the ECB and BoE is still an argument for the weaker EURGBP. The Bank of England is in a blackout period ahead of the next BoE MPC meeting.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
Cable may break above 1.3200 today but further strength will likely be limited by investors’ reluctance to let go of all their defensive US dollar positions given the elevated uncertainty regarding geopolitics and the liquidity of the market. If they do drop their bullish US dollar positions post the US CPI reading today or if the euro were to drop against the pound after the ECB press conference today, the weekly GBPUSD is showing buying pressure from the 1.3080 level which originates from the balance area printed in October 2020 and this confluence could accelerate cable higher. If we were to take out this week’s low my current thesis would be invalidated, so all stops go below 1.3079.
My base-case idea is that the GBPUSD travels back into the early 2022 balance area and tests around the 1.3400 to 1.3500 zone. Currently, the price action is trying to get above the late 2021 swing low, and if successful there is little market structure to act as resistance.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The bullish daily close yesterday signalled the bears were taking profits after a month of selling pressure. Today’s return to the Tuesday high and subsequent rejection is the set-up I was waiting for to show the bulls had a chance of retaining control.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
What we are seeing on the m30 chart is that price is compressing under the 200-period moving average, which is confluent with the higher time frame market structure from December 2021. For London breakout traders the current price action is still trading within the Asia-Pac session so any push above the London open and an indication that the m30 200-period EMA is going to act as support may be the trigger.
A comprehensive website for traders, both experienced and new! Checkout our content and learn how to invest and speculate in the markets using margin traded products. Our team of educators has extensive experience and is here to help. Enjoy!
© 2020 YouTrading UK - Leaders in Trader Training.
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__cfduid | 1 month | The cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information. |
_wpfuuid | 11 years | This cookie is used by the WPForms WordPress plugin. The cookie is used to allows the paid version of the plugin to connect entries by the same user and is used for some additional features like the Form Abandonment addon. |
cf_use_ob | This cookie is set by the provider Cloudflare content delivery network. This cookie is used for determining whether it should continue serving "Always Online" until the cookie expires. | |
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
YSC | session | This cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors. |
_gid | 1 day | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_fbp | 3 months | This cookie is set by Facebook to deliver advertisement when they are on Facebook or a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting this website. |
fr | 3 months | The cookie is set by Facebook to show relevant advertisments to the users and measure and improve the advertisements. The cookie also tracks the behavior of the user across the web on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. |
IDE | 1 year 24 days | Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile. |
test_cookie | 15 minutes | This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | This cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_gat_UA-42160853-2 | 1 minute | No description |
cf_ob_info | No description | |
CONSENT | 16 years 8 months 3 days 6 hours 2 minutes | No description |