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The euro currency has risen back above the 1.1100 level amidst the latest reports that Russia had made efforts to de-escalate the armed conflict, which has been ongoing for over a month now.
On the back of these reports, the EUR/USD pair rallied to 1.1137 overnight, and briefly traded back inside a key triangle pattern, and also its key 200-period MA on the four-hour time frame.
It is very important for EURUSD bulls that we see the price now settle above the key 200-period MA on the four-hour time frame, located at 1.1120, which would mean a short-term bullish bias is now in play.
In theory, gains above the area could provoke a move towards the big moving average that traders watch for the medium to the long-term trend, which is the 200-day MA.
Failure to get above the 1.1120 level and we may see a big sell-off coming back towards the 1.1000 level. But with the Ukraine news, more upside potential exists.
Sentiment is in favour of more sideways trading this week. The ActivTrader market sentiment tool shows that some 53 percent of traders are currently bullish towards the EURUSD pair.
However, I think that we probably need to see EURUSD traders turning wholesale negative or positive before the EURUSD pair goes and picks a new short-term trend.
EURUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame continues to show that the EURUSD pair has started to break to test the bottom of rising wedge type price pattern, following a recent bearish breakout.
According to the four-hour time frame, the price trend is still bearish while the price is capped under 1.1120 level in the short-term. Additionally, the bottom of the wedge pattern is intercepting with the 200-period MA.
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EURUSD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time frame, the EURUSD pair has bounced above a key trendline, which is encouraging for the medium-term bull case.
I would also like to add that the EURUSD pairs 200-day moving average is another key upside target, which is close to a key rising trendline, around the 1.1400 level.
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