Market Wrap
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov used very few positive words but what he did say showed there could be some light at the end of this very dark tunnel. The market reacted well to “there is always a chance for agreement”, though he was also clear to state that there is no way that talks will go on indefinitely. The Russians want a satisfactory resolution and soon. The yen and Swiss franc lost some of their shine as traders figured WW3 wasn’t happening today at least. Though the UK foreign ministry decided to keep up with the warnings of ‘Russia could invade at any moment’ and US intel says that Russia could surround Kyiv with 48-hours should military action actually occur.
The other focus away from the Ukraine and Russia were on the central bank speeches from Feds Bullard and ECB President Lagarde. The main call of a 100bps rate hike by July 1st still stands according to Bullard, though he is just “one man” and he will need to convince his colleagues. So maybe the FOMC meeting minutes will be a little less Hawkish? We’ll find out on Wednesday. There was another walk back with the need for inter-meeting rate hikes as he said that Fed Char Powell would be deciding on when the rate hikes will occur.
ECB President Lagarde said that the inflation target of 2% over the medium term is still there and that they will “take action” when the time is right. No doubt if the market were to decide the time is now to act the ECB would bend quicker, just as the Fed have. What we do know is that a rate hike will not happen before net asset purchases have concluded.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The 1.13000 level that I had a target from last week has been found and traders have done a decent job of defending that level against any follow through. As we have such an unsettled market, I would advise on stepping aside for the time being and waiting to see which cohort wins. Currently the ActivTrader sentiment indicator is not signalling a decent contrarian reading and if Russia were to invade Europe there is nothing anyone could do to stop the EURUSD tumbling, so best to stay away for now.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The energy complex is higher at the London close but has not done enough to turn the day green for WTI and Brent. UK Natural Gas is higher by 2.66% though and continued rising natural gas prices will keep prices of Oil rising too, as markets switch from one fuel that is far too expensive to a slightly cheaper one. The $94.20 on the Brent contract looks to be the first significant level of resistance and a breach of that could see the swing high taken and a move into the $95+ zone. Which is then just a small reach to the psychological $100 per barrel. The UAE energy minister said earlier that the driving force behind the price of oil was the geopolitical situation. Though analysts are quick to point out that the OPEC+ have been in a strict phase in the reduction of supply and there has been a lack of investment across the globe in bringing more wells on stream.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator shows an extreme number of traders using the platform are bullish the pair.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
I am expecting a sweep of the 1.2800 level but with oil rising we could see the 1.2650 zone also be tested. Currently trading in this range is only good for those that trade back to the mean from the highs and lows of the channel between the two levels previously mentioned. If the EMAs could hint at the direction we should expect they would say the bulls have the edge currently as the 20, 50 and 200-period averages are stacked in a bullish manner.
A comprehensive website for traders, both experienced and new! Checkout our content and learn how to invest and speculate in the markets using margin traded products. Our team of educators has extensive experience and is here to help. Enjoy!
© 2020 YouTrading UK - Leaders in Trader Training.
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__cfduid | 1 month | The cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information. |
_wpfuuid | 11 years | This cookie is used by the WPForms WordPress plugin. The cookie is used to allows the paid version of the plugin to connect entries by the same user and is used for some additional features like the Form Abandonment addon. |
cf_use_ob | This cookie is set by the provider Cloudflare content delivery network. This cookie is used for determining whether it should continue serving "Always Online" until the cookie expires. | |
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
YSC | session | This cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors. |
_gid | 1 day | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_fbp | 3 months | This cookie is set by Facebook to deliver advertisement when they are on Facebook or a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting this website. |
fr | 3 months | The cookie is set by Facebook to show relevant advertisments to the users and measure and improve the advertisements. The cookie also tracks the behavior of the user across the web on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. |
IDE | 1 year 24 days | Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile. |
test_cookie | 15 minutes | This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | This cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_gat_UA-42160853-2 | 1 minute | No description |
cf_ob_info | No description | |
CONSENT | 16 years 8 months 3 days 6 hours 2 minutes | No description |