Market Wrap – Market Tread Water

The US dollar continued to tread water against a basket of currencies and stock remained sidelined ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes later today during the US session.

New orders for manufactured goods in the US increased by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month in May 2023, the same pace as in the previous period but falling short of market expectations for a 0.8 percent advance.

Notably, demand for transportation remained the primary driver of growth, as orders rose by 3.8 percent, following a 4.8 percent increase in April, mainly boosted by civilian aircraft and ships & boats.

Demand was also up for electrical equipment, appliances, and components (1.9 percent vs -2.8 percent), computers and electronic products (0.3 percent vs -1.8 percent), machinery (1.2 percent vs 0.4 percent), primary metals (0.4 percent vs -0.5 percent), and fabricated metal products (0.1 percent vs -0.2 percent). Finally, demand for nondurable goods declined by 1.2 percent, after a 0.7 percent fall in April.

The Minister of Kuwait has stated that the country’s oil output capacity will reach 3.2 million barrels per day (BPD) by the end of 2024. However, he denied that Kuwait is seeking an increase in its OPEC quota.

This follows the earlier statement by the CEO of Kuwait’s state oil company, who stated that the current production capacity exceeds 2.8 million BPD and is expected to reach 3 million BPD in 2025. Despite these projections, Kuwait will continue to adhere to OPEC decisions.

Oil came under some pressure after an Al Arabiya report said Kuwait, citing the oil minister, said the country looked to increase its production quotas, but will abide by OPEC decisions. The minister said they aim for 3.2 mbpd of capacity before the end of 2024.

Traders are now awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes, I wouldn’t expect any fireworks on economic data as we get factory orders at 10 am ET and the Fed minutes at 2 pm ET.

The later has more potential for drama but the minutes are usually more of a landmine than a goldmine. The market is pricing in an 85% chance of a hike in July.