Morning Brief – Antipodean Data

A busy more of data during the Asian session as we saw the release of Retail sales figures from Australia and Japan and Business Confidence data from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar rose as Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.7 percent month-over-month to AUD 35.52 billion in May 2023, picking up from a flat reading a month earlier and easily topping market consensus of a 0.1 percent growth.

This was the fastest increase in retail trade since January, reflecting resilience in spending with consumers taking advantage of larger-than-usual promotional activity and sales events.

Retail turnover rose across most states and territories. The Northern Territory (1.6%) recorded the largest rise and was now at its highest level. Tasmania recorded the only fall in sales, down 0.1 percent.

This morning we also saw MUFG note that Australian headline inflation slowed more than expected, dropping even further below the peak from the end of last year at 8.4%.

MUFG are still expecting a further rate hike from the RBA but say the Bank “could now choose to skip next week’s policy meeting and leave rates on hold until the following meeting in August“.

As for Australian currency they note that “Overall, it is a further near-term setback for the Australian Dollar which has been correcting lower since the middle of the month.”

Elsewhere, Retail sales in Japan increased by 5.7 percent year-on-year in May 2023, accelerating from a marginally revised 5.1 % gain in the prior month and exceeding market expectations of 5.4 percent. This was the 15th straight month of growth in retail trade, as consumption strengthened following a full removal of pandemic measures.

Also, the ANZ Business Outlook Index in New Zealand climbed to -18.0 in June 2023 from -31.1 in May. This was the highest point since November 2021 while marking the 24th straight month of negative readings.

Profit expectations hit their highest since December 2021 (-24.1 vs -27.4), and investment intentions were at their highest since October 2022 (-2.7 vs -6.8).