Midday Brief – Sterling on top

The British pound continued to advance against the US dollar during the European morning session, following the release of GDP and Manufacturing data from the UK.

GBPUSD rose towards the 1.2650 area after data showed that the British economy expanded 0.2% month-over-month in April 2023, in line with expectations and rebounding from a 0.3% drop in March, when heavy rain and strikes weighed on consumer spending.

The services sector grew 0.3%, following a 0.5% fall in March and was the main contributor to the growth, led by wholesale and retail trade (1%), repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (3.9%), and information and communication (1.3%).

Output in consumer-facing services surged 1%, recovering from a 0.8% fall in March, with the largest contribution coming from food and beverage service activities (2%).

More under par did not deter the gains as the pound as data showed that Manufacturing production in the UK fell 0.3% month-on-month in April 2023, more than market forecasts of a 0.2% decline and from a 0.7% growth in March.

It was the first drop-in manufacturing activity since November 2022, as 8 out of 13 sub-sectors declined, led by manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and computer electronic & optical products.

On a yearly basis, manufacturing output went down 0.9%, in line with market expectations and marked the smallest decrease since January 2022.

We also saw some minor housing data released from the USA economy as US mortgage applications in the US jumped 7.2% in the week ended June 9th, 2023, the first increase in five weeks, and the biggest in nearly three months, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association data showed.

Applications to buy a home were up 7.6% and those to refinance a home loan surged 6%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased by 4bps to 6.77%, the second straight week of decreases.

Joel Kan, an MBA economist noted that “Rates that are still more than a percentage point higher than a year ago, and low for-sale inventory continue to constrain homebuying activity in many markets.”