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The AUDNZD continues to rally this week after the latest RBNZ interest rate hike. The bullish run on the AUDNZD could be just starting after the hawkish rate hike brings market expectations of more rate hikes.
So far, the Australian dollar emerged as the best performing currency among the G10 this week following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) unexpectedly hawkish policy update according to MUFG bank.
The main catalyst was the RBA’s surprise decision to increase their policy rate by a further 0.25 percentage point to 4.10%. In the policy statement accompanying the decision, the RBA indicated that inflation remains “too high”.
Also, MUFG bank note that the additional interest rate increase aims to provide greater confidence that inflation will return to the target within a reasonable timeframe.
MUFG believes this development supports their long AUDNZD trade recommendation which is set to benefit from the growing policy divergence between the RBA and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the near term.
Unlike the RBA, the RBNZ recently strongly signalled the end of their rate hike cycle after raising their key policy rate to a peak of 5.50%.
Technically, a break above the 1.1000 level could reinforce the current outlook on the pair in the near term, a turbo charges a move towards the 1.1000 region, although this scenario does seem far-fetched at present.
The ActivTrader Sentiment tool suggests that 94% of retail traders are bearish on the AUD. Technically retail traders could be pricing in on a near-term price retracement.
Also, the majority tend to be on the wrong side of the trade, especially with this type of large sentiment margin.
4Hour Chart Analysis
The AUDNZD managed to breakout from the 1.0750, level a previous support-turned-resistance. The short-term trend is dominated by bulls in the near term above this level.
However, a failure to trade above a 1.1000 barrier, could soon trigger selling pressure on the pair back below the 1.0940 level. A break above the 1.1000 level could reinforce a bullish outlook and the near-term target will be at the 1.1050 level.
Daily Chart Analysis
The AUDNZD pair has formed a bullish double-bottom price pattern, this is further amplifying the bulls case right now, despite the negative outlook under the Cloud.
However, a break above the 1.1000 level could trigger buying pressure towards the 1.1200 level. A hold above the 1.0800 support level could give bulls the reinforcement needed to break above the 1.1100 medium-term resistance.
