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Midday Brief – Risk appetite looms as Fed Chair Powell signals downshift

by Nathan Batchelor
1 December 2022
in Markets
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Midday Brief – Risk appetite looms as Fed Chair Powell signals downshift
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Global markets rallied on Thursday as bulls soared on a weaker dollar following Fed Powell’s inflation speech. The Japanese Yen was broadly higher with an extra boost from insurers chasing hedges. In the UK, House Price index traded lower falling more than expected since June 2020 while a drop in German manufacturing data indicated a demand squeeze in Europe. Swiss inflation remained at 3.0% while Chinese softened Covid Curbs brought relief to the market.

USDJPY slumped by -1.30% to a 3-month low ahead of US economic data. Markets are adjusting to a 50bps rate hike for December following Fed Powell’s remarks on slower tightening pace. The US economic data sends mixed signals ahead of key Jobs data. Japanese Capital spending YoY Q3 rose to 9.8% vs 6.4% boosting Yen bids in the near term. The pair suffered selling pressure after breaking below the 136.40 support and the next key support is at 135.00 level.

EURGBP tanked by -0.52% following a drop in German Retail Sales. The German Retail Sales YoY dropped to -5.0% against -2.8% surveyed as Europe faces major economic headwinds. The German Manufacturing PMI data was slightly lower falling to 46.2 vs 46.7 anticipated, reflecting that the market is still struggling in contraction.

The Pound advanced as investors find confidence in the UK market after the November fiscal budget. The EURGBP is currently trading at the 0.8580 level, a 3-month support and a break below that level could trigger further selling towards the 0.8500 psychological level. To the upside gains are capped by the 0.8650 level.

NZDCHF soared by +0.80% ahead of RBNZ Gov Orr speech early Friday. The risk sensitive New Zealand dollar rallied on better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. The data rose to 49.4 vs 48.9 anticipated underpinning improving outlook.

The CHF remained on the back-foot as Retail Sales YoY (Oct) missed estimates at -2.5% vs 3.5% while inflation remained unchanged at 3.0%. Bulls extended a 3-day rally after breaking above the 0.5900 high and upside gains are challenged by the 0.6080 level.

European stocks edged higher as Fed Powell signals a slower pace for rate hikes. FTSE100 tanked by -0.47% as bulls loses steam above the 7600 level. Critical levels to watch out for are the 7650 resistance and 7570, previous resistance-turned-support. CAC40 plunged by -0.92% from 6800 resistance and the next key level is at 6700 level. DAX extended rally by +0.39% towards the 14550 level and the 14300 remains a near-term support.

US stock futures steady as investors cautious ahead of US Jobs data. S&P500 futures edged lower by -0.35% as bulls retracts from the 4100 resistance and a hold above the 4050 level could see upside targets at 4200 level.

Nasdaq100 futures gave in gains by -0.50% breaking below the 12000, a near-term barrier and bears may push for the 11900 level, a previous resistance-turned-support. DJIA index futures lost -0.22% after breaking above the near-term resistance at 34450. Upside gains are capped by 35000 psychological level.

Gold soared by +0.58% marking a 3-day rally fuelled by Fed’s Powell signals of a downshift in rate cycles. The yellow metal is currently trading at 1780 level and a break above that level could trigger buying pressure into the 1800 zone. However, a failure to challenge that level could cause a near-term correction towards the 1760 level.

Tags: EURGBPFedGOLDInflationNZDCHFStocksUS DollarUSDJPY
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