The FTSE100 has started to advance after the US CPI report showed that the pace of inflation was started to slow in the United States. However, warning signs are growing on an imminent pullback.
Sentiment towards the UK100 is very interesting right now. According to the ActivTrader platform some 92 percent of traders are bullish towards the UK100. This is a huge one-way trading bias.
Typically, it very bearish when we see large amounts of one-way negative sentiment starting to quickly form. The UK100 could struggle continue to head higher, as the charts across the lower time frames certainly suggest divergence is also present.
It should be noted that with 92% traders on just side of the trade, a massive, long squeeze could happen at any time. This is the correct grave risk for longs with this type of sentiment bias.
In an ideal world sentiment should be heading in the opposite direction of the trade. This is because retail traders are normally on the wrong side of the trade, and especially price trends.
Based on the current sentiment reading I think it is highly probable that we could see a pullback towards the 7,400 area in order to liquidate weak long or indeed shake them out.
UK100 Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that the UK100 index is above trendline support and bounces are still taking place when we see these type of trendline tests taking place.
According to the four-hour time frame the MACD indicator has started to form bearish divergence. A reversal towards the 7,350-price zone is possible given this type of heavy divergence.
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UK100 Medium-Term Technical Analysis
The daily time frame shows that a large, inverted head and shoulders pattern has clearly been formed. The pattern will only be made invalid if the price starts to trade beneath the 6,760 level.
If the pattern is invalidated, I expect that the FTSE100 could crash hard. In order for this to happen we really need to see a move under the 7,000-support area to get bears interested. In the interim, the 200-day MA, around the 7,300 level remains key.
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