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- Золото обычно предсказывает изменения в денежно-кредитной политике.
- Резкое снижение золота указывает на приближение нормализации.
- Официальная риторика ФРС будет закладывать основу.
- Золото может упасть до 1500 долларов к концу года.
Внезапный обвал цен на золото в начале недели может сигнализировать, что денежно-кредитная политика США начнет ужесточаться во второй половине года, поскольку ФРС может начать сокращение своего стимулирования в свете неизменно сильных экономических данных США.
Данные по-прежнему свидетельствуют об устойчивом восстановлении экономики США, что создает почву для сокращения программы покупки облигаций ФРС, а затем, возможно, и повышения ставок.
Хотя до этих действий может пройти еще несколько месяцев, рынок золота обычно является первым активом, который намекает на сдвиги в денежно-кредитной политике. Как в 2013 году, когда золото опережало процентные ставки и доллар на шесть месяцев в ожидании сокращения со стороны ФРС. Так что возможно стоит ожидать подобный сдвиг и в ближайшие 12 месяцев.
Обвал золота в начале недели может стать техническим сигналом к более жесткой политике ФРС и укреплению доллара. Однако для этого могут потребоваться месяцы, поскольку ставки остаются на уровне близком к минимумам с начала года, в то время как курс доллара сохраняет относительную стабильность в отношении валют G-10 весь 2021 год.
Тем не менее, импульсное движение золота может быть ранним предупреждением грядущего изменения монетарной политики и может быть предвестником многомесячного снижения цены желтого металла, которая может упасть ниже 1500 долларов за унцию.
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