{"id":8344,"date":"2021-05-14T08:52:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-14T07:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=8344"},"modified":"2021-05-14T14:58:36","modified_gmt":"2021-05-14T13:58:36","slug":"euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Market Brief<\/strong><\/p>

There are a few key moments to look out for today on the economic calendar. The first of the Tier 1 data releases come from the European Central Bank and then before the US open, we have US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data reports.<\/p>

Central banks have been slow to adjust their monetary policies and in general, they are favouring looser monetary policies to support their economies, which are being dragged out of the economic slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The ECB is likely to keep everything unchanged, but traders will be looking to see if they follow the Bank of England and slow their purchases of bonds. Any variation in policy will see a reaction in the single currency, as traders will take that shift in policy or forward guidance as a change in sentiment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The EURUSD<\/a> has traded above yesterday\u2019s high at the start of the London session, and I expect that we will test higher today, with an acceleration to the upside if the ECB turns more Hawkish in their views.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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A higher Euro would also add to the downside pressure on the US dollar index<\/a> which is looking like the resistance found yesterday will hold.<\/p>

For anyone listening in on the ECB press conference or reading the minutes, there will be a lot of focus on the PEPP monetary policy. PEPP is an acronym for Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, so if this emergency asset purchase were to be tapered that would signal a bullish environment was developing as COVID-19 restrictions etc. would be lifted sooner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The DAX<\/a> dropped yesterday but found support around the daily 50 exponential moving average. The momentum is still to the upside so a significant-close higher today and preferably above the May 10th highs would be a great signal for further buying next week.<\/p>

There is a mantra that you \u201cdon\u2019t fight the Fed\u201d, but market analysts can get whipped up with headline data and start calling for the Fed to change course. There is precedent for Fed Chair Powell to reverse course after the Taper Tantrum around 2018. The market-led the Fed to reverse their rate hike cycle and to eventually start buying assets again. The last FOMC press conference was focused on when the Fed would start talking about tapering and Fed Chair Powell was determined to make it very clear that there would be no such tapering or rate hikes in the near future. Yesterday\u2019s bounce in equities following the large drop in risk assets after the CPI report, should have been expected, as \u2018Buy the Dip\u2019 is the best trend following strategy in these market conditions. But the fall in the commodity markets was more likely the catalyst for risk-on, rather than traders simply holding their noses and buying the bids.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The S&P500<\/a>, Nasdaq<\/a> and Dow Jones<\/a> all traded off their lows and closed higher than the previous day. Once again, the 50 period EMA\u2019s are showing where dynamic support is to be found, and where the trade location for \u2018Buy The Dip\u2019 buyers can be expected.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil<\/a> had dropped in yesterday\u2019s session adding to the -3% during Wednesday\u2019s session. The biggest concerns are still around coronavirus situations in India. Indian officials are recommending a lockdown of 2 months to try and flatten the curve and OPEC+ revised down its estimates for global oil demand for Q2 by 300,000 BPD. On the supply side, the US fuel supplies are expected to return to normal as the Colonial Pipeline reopens following on from the cyber-attack. A reduced amount of demand and sufficient supply will bring the price of energy down, which will have a deflationary effect.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Brief There are a few key moments to look out for today on the economic calendar. The first of the Tier 1 data releases come from the European Central Bank and then before the US open, we have US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data reports. Central banks have been slow to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8345,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[64,355,154,54,18,383,279],"yoast_head":"\nEuro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Euro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Brief There are a few key moments to look out for today on the economic calendar. The first of the Tier 1 data releases come from the European Central Bank and then before the US open, we have US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data reports. Central banks have been slow to […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-14T07:52:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-05-14T13:58:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/photo-1620202304714-23f7b437d856.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"752\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"391\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\"},\"headline\":\"Euro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-14T07:52:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-05-14T13:58:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\"},\"wordCount\":657,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Crude oil\",\"DAX30\",\"DXY\",\"ECB\",\"EURUSD\",\"PEPP\",\"USA500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\",\"name\":\"Euro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB - Youtrading UK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-14T07:52:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-05-14T13:58:36+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/euro-outlook-more-positive-ahead-of-ecb\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Euro Outlook More Positive Ahead Of ECB\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Youtrading UK\",\"description\":\"Leaders in Trader Training\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"YouTrading\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"width\":2531,\"height\":570,\"caption\":\"YouTrading\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\",\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"description\":\"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. 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