{"id":6522,"date":"2021-04-15T08:06:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T07:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=6522"},"modified":"2021-04-15T12:33:03","modified_gmt":"2021-04-15T11:33:03","slug":"market-insight-us-retail-sales-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-retail-sales-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Insight – US Retail Sales Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Today we see the release of the March United States retail sales report, with many economists predicting a blockbuster number following the recent rollout of $1,400 stimulus checks to US citizens.<\/p>

Estimates for today\u2019s retail sales number are wide ranging. Many of the leading investment banks are calling for a monthly headline between 3.8 percent and 11.5 percent, which is a major improvement on last month negative headline number.<\/p>

Better-than-expected weather for this time of year in March, and $1,400 stimulus checks hitting most US citizens bank accounts in early-March are some of the reasons why analysts are becoming hawkish on today\u2019s retail sales report.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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In terms of what is officially expected, the consensus is for a 5.5 percent headline number, while the previous months retail sales number has been revised to -3.3 percent, which is slightly down on the initial 3.0 percent number.<\/p>

Digging into what the banks are forecasting, some eye-catching headline numbers are being predicted for today. NatWest bank<\/a> is calling for a 10 percent monthly increase in retail sales, with the bank citing stimulus checks, record auto sales, and increased usage of restaurants.<\/p>

Bank of American<\/a> are even more bullish. The bank has said that they expect headline and core CPI to surge today, with both numbers hitting 11 percent. Again, they talk-up stimulus and better weather as a potent cocktail for better consumer spending.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Should we see a strong retail sales number today as many bank analysts and economists are predicting then this bodes well for tomorrow\u2019s US consumer sentiment index, which is a key survey on personal consumer spending, and confidence in the US economy.<\/p>

If today\u2019s retail sales number comes in hot, then a multi-year high Michigan consumer sentiment reading above 90 is highly likely. This could be extremely bullish for the US dollar and US stocks.<\/p>

Recent rallies in the US dollar index<\/a> have been sustained, and stronger, when bond yields start to rise, with particular attention given to the movements of the 10-year yields<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Perhaps the key to today\u2019s retail sales number will be the reaction of the US bond yields. Should we US yields rising sharply then it should be a boon for the US dollar currency, however, rising yields could spook stocks.<\/p>

Typically, retail sales numbers are highly volatile, so a sustained multi-month trend of strong retail sales numbers could be needed to convince the bond market that the US consumer is back to its old spending habits.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today we see the release of the March United States retail sales report, with many economists predicting a blockbuster number following the recent rollout of $1,400 stimulus checks to US citizens. Estimates for today\u2019s retail sales number are wide ranging. Many of the leading investment banks are calling for a monthly headline between 3.8 percent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[208,40,199,71],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Insight - US Retail Sales Preview - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-retail-sales-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Insight - US Retail Sales Preview\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today we see the release of the March United States retail sales report, with many economists predicting a blockbuster number following the recent rollout of $1,400 stimulus checks to US citizens. 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