{"id":47103,"date":"2023-06-28T05:51:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T04:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=47103"},"modified":"2023-06-28T12:55:32","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T11:55:32","slug":"market-insight-us-recession-less-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-recession-less-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Insight &#8211; US Recession Less Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"47103\" class=\"elementor elementor-47103\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5b87ce2 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5b87ce2\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3a7b9b4\" data-id=\"3a7b9b4\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e8bd52b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e8bd52b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Better than expected data from the United States on Tuesday, plus a key speech from US President Biden saying the economy is so strong now that he doesn&#8217;t expect a recession has yet to lift market sentiment.<\/p><p>However, the question does need to be posed whether the US is really likely to head into a recession or not, based on current global economic conditions and the ongoing slowdown in China.<\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2qiQbnK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> also recently raised their Q2 US economic growth tracking estimate due to better data flow, which could be a common theme we are about to see become widespread amongst other economists.<\/p><p>Yesterday, the consumer confidence index was stronger than expected in June, jumping to its highest level since January 2022, as both the present situation and expectations components rose.<\/p><p>The labour differential also improved, and New home sales increased in May, also well above expectations, from a downwardly revised level.<\/p><p>Goldman Sachs notes that \u201c<em>The data indicated a firmer pace of residential, inventory, and equipment investment in the second quarter. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +2.2%.<\/em>\u201d<\/p><p>The US economic growth accelerated to 1.6 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of 2023, up from 0.9 percent in the previous period, and in line with the second estimate.<\/p><p>The final GDP number from Q1 this week is expected to show a 1.3 year on year growth rate. However, markets are looking forward so Q2 could be better.<\/p><p>China is currently a problem. Annual profits at China&#8217;s industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery.<\/p><p>China&#8217;s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says profits took a hit from insufficient demand but are improving. The 18.8% year-on-year slump in profits came on top of the 20.6% contraction in January-April and added to evidence of an economy worsening\u00a0on many fronts.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Better than expected data from the United States on Tuesday, plus a key speech from US President Biden saying the economy is so strong now that he doesn&#8217;t expect a recession has yet to lift market sentiment. However, the question does need to be posed whether the US is really likely to head into a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2290,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[9],"tags":[201,108,167],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v17.6 (Yoast SEO v20.11) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Market Insight - US Recession Less Likely - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-recession-less-likely\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Insight - US Recession Less Likely\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Better than expected data from the United States on Tuesday, plus a key speech from US President Biden saying the economy is so strong now that he doesn&#039;t expect a recession has yet to lift market sentiment.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-recession-less-likely\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-28T04:51:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-28T11:55:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/GettyImages-618642530.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"499\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"302\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nathan Batchelor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Market Insight - US Recession Less Likely\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Better than expected data from the United States on Tuesday, plus a key speech from US President Biden saying the economy is so strong now that he doesn&#039;t expect a recession has yet to lift market sentiment.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nathan Batchelor\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-recession-less-likely\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/market-insight-us-recession-less-likely\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Nathan Batchelor\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/88ce8e6688d6c690a83e6cbeee2eccab\"},\"headline\":\"Market Insight &#8211; 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