{"id":42268,"date":"2023-02-22T06:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-22T06:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=42268"},"modified":"2023-02-23T17:32:39","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T17:32:39","slug":"dxy-technical-analysis-awaiting-the-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/dxy-technical-analysis-awaiting-the-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"DXY Technical Analysis – Awaiting the FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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The US dollar index<\/a> has started to rise again due to hawkish rhetoric towards rates and an expectation that the Federal Reserve is going back into a more aggressive rate hike mode.<\/p>

Basically, the FOMC is data-dependent, thus, the meeting minutes are not expected to reflect the “January surge.” However, the Fed will likely have to turn much more hawkish going forward.<\/p>

If we see the FOMC being very hawkish today the probability of a very deep drawdown in the S&P500<\/a> is now much higher. The FOMC is still likely to be encouraged by the positive inflation data from December 2022, which would fit in the narrative of disinflation.<\/p>

The FOMC will also acknowledge the weakening labour market in November and December, as the number of temporary workers decreased, and the number of average hours worked decreased – both being the leading indicators.<\/p>

Really, we need to see the reaction of the market to today\u2019s FOMC minutes. It is likely that a big move in the buck could take place if expectations of a 50-basis point hike are cemented.<\/p>

This is also confirmed by sentiment analysis, as it shows a huge majority of traders are very long the US dollar index, which likely means the need to be cautious right now.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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According to the ActivTrader Market Sentiment tool some 92% of traders are bullish towards the US dollar index, which certainly hints that bulls could be in for some pain this week.<\/p>

Overall, with retail traders still positive we are probably going to see the US dollar index heading lower. Although the pace of this week\u2019s decline is pretty significant already.<\/p>

US dollar index Short-Term Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/p>

Technical analysis on the four-hour time frame shows that the US dollar index has broken above its short-term rage. The price is likely to see an immediate upwards price surge towards the 105.00 area.<\/p>

I would be inclined to look for a short-term move towards the 106.00 level based upon the overall size of the mentioned range break between the 104.00 to 102.00 levels.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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US dollar index Medium-Term Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/p>

The daily time frame is showing that US dollar has broken above its 50-day moving average, so far a death-cross is still underway, but not yet is it in full swing.<\/p>

For now, in order for the downtrend in the US dollar index to really stick technically, we probably need to see the 106.00 area defended.<\/p>

A bearish head and shoulders pattern is also still seen with the pattern potential carving out a final right hand should upto the 106.00 to 108.00 area.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US dollar index has started to rise again due to hawkish rhetoric towards rates and an expectation that the Federal Reserve is going back into a more aggressive rate hike mode. Basically, the FOMC is data-dependent, thus, the meeting minutes are not expected to reflect the “January surge.” However, the Fed will likely have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":14083,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[42,69,40,279],"yoast_head":"\nDXY Technical Analysis - Awaiting the FOMC - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/dxy-technical-analysis-awaiting-the-fomc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DXY Technical Analysis - Awaiting the FOMC DXY Technical Analysis - Awaiting the FOMC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The US dollar index has started to rise again due to hawkish rhetoric towards rates and an expectation that the Federal Reserve are going back into a more aggressive rate hike mode.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/dxy-technical-analysis-awaiting-the-fomc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-22T06:50:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-23T17:32:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-a0035-000020.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"478\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"318\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nathan Batchelor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"DXY Technical Analysis - 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