{"id":35824,"date":"2022-10-07T09:33:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-07T08:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=35824"},"modified":"2022-10-07T13:42:33","modified_gmt":"2022-10-07T12:42:33","slug":"morning-brief-non-farm-payrolls-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/morning-brief-non-farm-payrolls-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Brief – Non-farm payrolls preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Market was in a calm mood this morning ahead of the Non-farm payrolls job report for the month of September which is likely to set the trading tone for the next few days at least.<\/p>

A strong report will push up rate expectations and prolong the rate hiking cycle while a soft reading will kick off another ‘Fed pivot’ trade. It’s a very fine line that will depend on headline jobs, unemployment, and earnings metrics.<\/p>

Looking at the consensus estimate from analysts they are expecting 250,000 jobs to be created today. This is above what most major banks are predicting.<\/p>

In August 315,000 jobs were created so there is a clear downtrend going on. The Unemployment rate consensus estimate is 3.7% vs 3.7% during the previous month.<\/p>

Average hourly earnings year on year are expected at +5.1% against +5.2% prior. Average hourly earnings month on month +0.3% versus +0.3% last month. Average weekly hours are expected to come in at 34.5 vs 34.5 prior.<\/p>

Goldman Sachs<\/a> bank analysts have a consensus estimate today for a headline estimated at +200,000. They also expect today\u2019s jobless rate estimate is 3.7%<\/p>

The highest bank analyst estimate I have seen is from BNP Paribas<\/a> at 315,000. Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale <\/a>bank project a 280,000 gain this month which is also on the higher side.<\/p>

The bank analysts also expected the unemployment rate for September is expected to decline to 3.6% if they are correct then the market would likely sell off as the Fed would probably be emboldened to hike aggressively.<\/p>

According to BNP \u201cIf there are no returnees, or if there is a net exodus from the labour force rather than re-entrants, the unemployment rate could drop even more than the 3.6% we project.\u201d<\/p>

They also noted \u201cWages are expected to rise 0.5% MoM in September. We view the shortfall seen in August, when wages rose 0.3%, as noise in the data rather than the beginning of a new trend.\u201d<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market was in a calm mood this morning ahead of the Non-farm payrolls job report for the month of September which is likely to set the trading tone for the next few days at least. A strong report will push up rate expectations and prolong the rate hiking cycle while a soft reading will kick […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[718,135,163,719],"yoast_head":"\nMorning Brief - Non-farm payrolls preview - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/morning-brief-non-farm-payrolls-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Morning Brief - Non-farm payrolls preview Morning Brief - Non-farm payrolls preview\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market was in a calm mood this morning ahead of the Non-farm payrolls job report for the month of September which is likely to set the trading tone for the next few days at least.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/morning-brief-non-farm-payrolls-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-07T08:33:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-10-07T12:42:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/GettyImages-1227553117.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"553\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"311\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nathan Batchelor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Morning Brief - 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