{"id":30424,"date":"2022-06-15T18:26:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-15T17:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=30424"},"modified":"2022-06-17T14:50:34","modified_gmt":"2022-06-17T13:50:34","slug":"central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Market Wrap<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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It was a relatively quiet end to the London session as the markets square up their positions ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. The FOMC watch tool has 100% probability that there will be a rate hike today. The unknown is whether the market has forced the hand of the FOMC to raise by 75bps or whether the repricing of late has overshot the mark and the Fed comes in with the as originally planned 50bps hike. 97% of the CME survey show they expect a 75bps move, with 3% looking for 100bps. No one is expecting 50bps today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The forex heatmap has placed the Australian dollar <\/a>as the strongest currency relative to the others after the Chinese data wasn\u2019t so bad this morning and while the relatively weaker US dollar today helped the other crosses. The CAD has been weak all session after an inventory build was reported yesterday but also in today\u2019s US EIA weekly crude stocks. The 1.956 million barrels was lower than the previous weeks 2.205 million, but expectations had been for a draw of -1.314 million. Brent<\/a> has not swept yesterday\u2019s low as it is still trading within yesterday\u2019s outside bearish candle range. $120 per barrel is beginning to look like a hard ceiling to push through, especially as global productivity and energy demand is being forecast to slow down this year.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The USDCAD<\/a> is once again pushing at the supply zone around 1.3000 and should the US dollar fall tonight this may be an ideal shorting position for the USDCAD with a stop loss above the 12th<\/sup> of May 2022 high.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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I am going to assume that the US dollar does go higher on the back of a 75bps rate hike today. If it does the next target to the upside is the $107.765-$108.00 zone which is confluent with the 4.236 Fibonacci extension. Today\u2019s price action is still within yesterday\u2019s range and there is a gap at $104 which could be tested. Overall the US dollar index<\/a> is in a well-established uptrend and momentum is still positive until we get a confirmed swing high with bearish divergence in the RSI indicator.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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US advanced monthly retail sales contracted for the first time in 5 months and missed expectations of an expansion by 0.2%. To make matters worse the previous month was revised lower by 0.2% too. Total sales jumped by 7.7% for the 3-months ending in May 2022. Motor vehicle and parts dealer\u2019s sales have been dropping from the peak in March 2022 as has furniture and home furnishing stores.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a> found support at the close of an imbalance area from February 2021 in yesterday\u2019s push towards 30,000. That level has held today and now we\u2019re waiting to see if the demand is still present for a push back towards the daily 200-period EMA, or whether we have more correction to the downside to come.<\/p>

Tomorrow, we have the SNB and Bank of England on deck with the latter likely to push another 25bps rate hike on to us.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Wrap It was a relatively quiet end to the London session as the markets square up their positions ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. The FOMC watch tool has 100% probability that there will be a rate hike today. The unknown is whether the market has forced the hand of the FOMC to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14865,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[58,144,154,54,42,69,67,31],"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It is always hard to trade when the Federal Reserve are about to update the market, especially when there is a rate hike or key monetary policy change in store. Keeping your powder dry and reassessing the market\u2019s reaction after the initial knee-jerk moves are the best way that I have found to participate. This morning the euro traders were anticipating some support from the ECB, but they were ultimately disappointed with their PEPP tweak. It may happen again with the FOMC tonight.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-15T17:26:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-17T13:50:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/GettyImages-520104542.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"482\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"274\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"It is always hard to trade when the Federal Reserve are about to update the market, especially when there is a rate hike or key monetary policy change in store. Keeping your powder dry and reassessing the market\u2019s reaction after the initial knee-jerk moves are the best way that I have found to participate. This morning the euro traders were anticipating some support from the ECB, but they were ultimately disappointed with their PEPP tweak. It may happen again with the FOMC tonight.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\"},\"headline\":\"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-15T17:26:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-17T13:50:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\"},\"wordCount\":529,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Brent\",\"DOW JONES\",\"DXY\",\"ECB\",\"Fed\",\"FOMC\",\"US Dollar\",\"USDCAD\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\",\"name\":\"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment - Youtrading UK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-15T17:26:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-17T13:50:34+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/central-bank-expectations-are-driving-sentiment\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Central Bank Expectations Are Driving Sentiment\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Youtrading UK\",\"description\":\"Leaders in Trader Training\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"YouTrading\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"width\":2531,\"height\":570,\"caption\":\"YouTrading\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\",\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"description\":\"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. 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