{"id":27595,"date":"2022-05-10T08:32:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-10T07:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=27595"},"modified":"2022-05-11T01:13:18","modified_gmt":"2022-05-11T00:13:18","slug":"volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Market Brief<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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This morning at the start of the London session we\u2019re seeing some strength come back into the equity markets, but this is still a bear trend, and without a significant rise with new swing highs and higher swing lows forming, we\u2019re still looking to sell the rips. Last Fridays low is now significant resistance, so this is where I am expecting the bears to step back in. If they don\u2019t, for whatever reason, that signals to the bulls that a sweep above the recent FOMC high is the next logical target. The percentage of companies within the S&P500<\/a> above their 200-day moving average is around 30% and the lowest since the summer of 2020. This signals continued weakness in the benchmark index.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Somewhat interestingly though, is that implied volatility in the out of the money calls rose slightly more than the puts yesterday in the Nasdaq<\/a>. The Nasdaq had been leasing the large cap stocks lower. Rising call options could signal a shift in sentiment back to the buy side, but we would need to see them skew in favour of calls. This is going to take some time. The S&P500 Put\/Call ratio is at relative highs and\u00a0oftentimes, when we see stocks sell off, we see the Puts bid relative to the Calls. When this ratio turns back lower it may then signal a bottom in this market sell off.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The US Treasury<\/a> is removing more money from the financial system than it is putting in, so the current fiscal flows show a surplus of $38,643 billion. When the US economy is running a deficit that means the non-government are receiving more money from the government that what is being taxed out. Which translates to corporate profits and personal savings. A deficit is generally what has allowed the US stock markets to keep rising. US benchmark yields are still above 3% and inflation expectations over 10-years are somewhere between 3% and 8% depending on who you ask, or which graph you look at. The Fed is seeing 10-year inflation being priced around 3% so that is what I am using. This means the market has pushed the interest rates possibly up to the terminal point, but no one is sure. If the natural rate is higher, stocks are too expensive and this repricing we\u2019re seeing in the markets is bringing the stocks lower, because investors don\u2019t believe the companies will be as profitable in the future. The Eurodollar yield curve is inverted in the period 2023 to 2025 but then the markets become more optimistic, as seen in the sloping upward curve into the future. The US yield curve is flattening off, which is not an optimistic signal. These yield curves signal a couple of years of uncertainty is being priced in by the largest money markets, which commentators are saying will result in a recession induced by the removal of stimulus and hawkish rate hikes.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The US dollar<\/a> is compressing under the $104.00 level and the longer this occurs, the more I am expecting a pop higher, supported by rising interest rates and yields. There are several Federal Reserve, BoE and ECB members talking today, so I am also expecting a lot of volatility on any comment that mentions rate hikes. The US dollar could also rise on the back of a weaker euro if the ZEW sentiment reports this morning come out worse than expected.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The forex heatmap is not shedding any light on the direction of the market other than the Chinese yuan<\/a> is the strongest currency which is also helping the Aussie<\/a> to recover some of its losses from yesterday. Australian retail sales came in better than expected at 1.2% though the previous reading was revised down to 7.9% from 8.2%. China announced that they will be doing mass testing for COVID but that there will be additional help for small, medium and micro-enterprises that face difficulties.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The ActivTrader sentiment indicator shows that 66% of traders are still bullish the EURUSD<\/a> as the major forex pair bounces between 1.0500 and 1.0600. This price action is within the previous weeks range, which itself was within the week prior\u2019s range. A break lower than 1.0470 will be a significant blow to the bulls.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Brief See real-time quotes provided by our partner. This morning at the start of the London session we\u2019re seeing some strength come back into the equity markets, but this is still a bear trend, and without a significant rise with new swing highs and higher swing lows forming, we\u2019re still looking to sell the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[606,18,277,67,279],"yoast_head":"\nVolatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Major US indices are at recent lows and, perhaps unsurprisingly, implied volatility is at recent highs. The S&P500 hit a psychological round number and profit-taking started to materialise. The VIX closed above 34 which is the highest volatility since 2020. 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The S&P500 hit a psychological round number and profit-taking started to materialise. The VIX closed above 34 which is the highest volatility since 2020. We\u2019re in for some range expansions whilst volatility is high, so a wider stop or a smaller position size is recommended.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\"},\"headline\":\"Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-10T07:32:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-11T00:13:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\"},\"wordCount\":735,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Chinese Yuan\",\"EURUSD\",\"Indices\",\"US Dollar\",\"USA500\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\",\"name\":\"Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data - Youtrading UK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-10T07:32:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-11T00:13:18+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/volatility-set-to-remain-within-the-markets-ahead-of-key-data\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Volatility set to remain within the markets ahead of key data\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Youtrading UK\",\"description\":\"Leaders in Trader Training\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"YouTrading\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"width\":2531,\"height\":570,\"caption\":\"YouTrading\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\",\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"description\":\"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. 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