{"id":24936,"date":"2022-04-04T13:21:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-04T12:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=24936"},"modified":"2022-04-04T14:37:18","modified_gmt":"2022-04-04T13:37:18","slug":"pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/","title":{"rendered":"Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Forex Analysis – GBPUSD<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Since raising the UK bank interest rates three times over the last three meetings, the Bank of England has sounded more cautious than the FOMC. As inflation is expected to hit around 8% in April and could increase further later in the year, more rate hikes seem likely, including at the next policy update on 5 May (the day after the Fed). Although market pricing implies another 150 bps (to 2.25%), the BoE probably won’t raise rates by that much. According to BoE Governor Bailey, there are signs that demand is slowing down. Governor Baily and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, who voted against a rate increase at the last meeting, speak at the “Stop Scams” conference today. It’s unlikely they’ll use this event to announce monetary policy, so I’m expecting the pound<\/a> to move based on what happens with the euro and the dollar<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The ActivTrader sentiment indicator is my go-to contrarian view, and when we see traders shift towards being long or short \u2018en masse\u2019 I like to take the opposite view. Currently the bullish side is gaining traction and after the close higher on 22nd<\/sup> March, I had also thought we could be seeing a change in trend.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The daily 20, 50 and 200-period EMAs are pointing to downside momentum and the 20 is acting as decent daily dynamic resistance. A close above that moving average again would make me start to consider the possibilities of continued bullish strength, but until then I am happy to look for a continuation to the downside, to see if we can stop the ActivTrader out of their long positioning. 1.3000 is also a great target to the downside to try again at a sweep of the lows.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The hourly chart shows that the intraday resistance came from the 200-period moving average and the low of the first hour during the London session. While that opening Initial Balance range holds, I am holding a short with a stop loss above the 1.31400 intraday swing highs.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forex Analysis – GBPUSD Since raising the UK bank interest rates three times over the last three meetings, the Bank of England has sounded more cautious than the FOMC. As inflation is expected to hit around 8% in April and could increase further later in the year, more rate hikes seem likely, including at the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":19603,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[56,24,18,20,200],"yoast_head":"\nPound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The central bank rate hikes are designed to cool an overheating economy that is struggling with rising inflation, rising prices etc. Adding an extra 50bps or more to the cost of credit causes the repayments on your mortgage to go up, maybe the cost of goods too, which get passed on to consumers, and the end effect is demand destruction and the hope that businesses drop prices.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-04T12:21:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-04-04T13:37:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/GettyImages-96633943.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"346\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The central bank rate hikes are designed to cool an overheating economy that is struggling with rising inflation, rising prices etc. Adding an extra 50bps or more to the cost of credit causes the repayments on your mortgage to go up, maybe the cost of goods too, which get passed on to consumers, and the end effect is demand destruction and the hope that businesses drop prices.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\"},\"headline\":\"Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-04T12:21:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-04-04T13:37:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\"},\"wordCount\":354,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"BoE\",\"EURGBP\",\"EURUSD\",\"GBPUSD\",\"Monetary Policy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Forex\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/pound-struggles-at-resistance-as-boe-turns-less-hawkish\/\",\"name\":\"Pound struggles at resistance as BoE turns less hawkish - 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