{"id":24780,"date":"2022-03-31T10:11:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T09:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=24780"},"modified":"2022-03-31T14:10:24","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T13:10:24","slug":"nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Forex Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The NZDUSD<\/a> has found daily support at the high of the 28th<\/sup> of March. This comes after a sweep of the double top just below the 0.7000 big figure and ahead of the RBNZ\u2019s rate hike next month.<\/p>

The NZDUSD retains an upward momentum and is clearly targeting a break above 0.7000 during the week ahead. Multi-month targets could be as high as 0.7200 which is the October high. Expectations for the RBNZ meeting on 13 April are that there is an 80% chance of a 50bp hike being priced in. We\u2019ve also seen the US markets price in consecutive 50bp hikes from May, and central banks have gone from a race to ZIRP to now full throttle rate hikes. High commodity prices for a sustained period will also have a positive flow for the Kiwi and we saw today that Chinese manufacturing is once again in contraction, so supply chain disruptions are around the corner.<\/p>

The New Zealand CPI reading last came in at 5.9% and they have bank rates at 1% currently. New Zealand\u2019s unemployment rate at 3.20% is one of the lowest of the G20.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The ActivTrader sentiment indicator is showing a bias towards the short side, so I am hoping to see that increase.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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My base case scenario for the NZDUSD is that we get a bounce off the 0.69450 which is a previous daily high. However, on an H1 chart we can see a couple of levels below where the bulls may wait to get a better fill. The lowest is 0.69067, with another just below current price at 0.69355. My bullish hypothesis gets invalidates with a break below the 0.687 level and the swing low form the 29th<\/sup> of March. Currently an entry around the 0.695, with a stoploss below 0.6870 and TP at 0.7200, gives you a decent RRR.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Comparing the NZDUSD to some other charts, we can see that both the NZDUSD and AUDUSD<\/a> are mainly at the mercy of the US dollar index<\/a>. Currently the DXY is in a contraction, so I am hoping for a big pop in the Kiwi and Aussie. Comparatively the Aussie has been weakening against the Kiwi as seen in the AUDNZD<\/a> and that is most likely due to the interest rate differential. So if we are expecting greater rate hikes from the RBNZ, the New Zealand dollar to me is the preferable commodity pair to trade.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forex Analysis See real-time quotes provided by our partner. The NZDUSD has found daily support at the high of the 28th of March. This comes after a sweep of the double top just below the 0.7000 big figure and ahead of the RBNZ\u2019s rate hike next month. The NZDUSD retains an upward momentum and is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":18385,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[53,264,155],"yoast_head":"\nNZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The daily chart for the NZDUSD is above the 20, 50 and 200-period EMAs. Price action has recently taken out a double top and is at a previous daily high. The central bank is in a rate hike cycle and supply chains are about to get further disruptions. 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Barring a massive US dollar positive over the next couple of weeks, I am very bullish the Kiwi.","og_url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/","og_site_name":"Youtrading UK","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/","article_published_time":"2022-03-31T09:11:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-03-31T13:10:24+00:00","og_image":[{"width":440,"height":292,"url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/GettyImages-1220791150.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Neville Hornsey","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision","twitter_description":"The daily chart for the NZDUSD is above the 20, 50 and 200-period EMAs. Price action has recently taken out a double top and is at a previous daily high. The central bank is in a rate hike cycle and supply chains are about to get further disruptions. Barring a massive US dollar positive over the next couple of weeks, I am very bullish the Kiwi.","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Neville Hornsey","Estimated reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/"},"author":{"name":"Neville Hornsey","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85"},"headline":"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision","datePublished":"2022-03-31T09:11:00+00:00","dateModified":"2022-03-31T13:10:24+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/"},"wordCount":423,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization"},"keywords":["NZDUSD","RBNZ","Technical Analysis"],"articleSection":["Forex"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/","name":"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision - Youtrading UK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-03-31T09:11:00+00:00","dateModified":"2022-03-31T13:10:24+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/nzdusd-at-support-ahead-of-next-months-rate-hike-decision\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"NZDUSD at support ahead of next month\u2019s rate hike decision"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/","name":"Youtrading UK","description":"Leaders in Trader Training","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization","name":"YouTrading","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg","width":2531,"height":570,"caption":"YouTrading"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85","name":"Neville Hornsey","description":"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. Neville has worked for several brokerages and prop firms, specialising in the Foreign exchange and Futures markets and blends technical analysis with fundamentals, with a bias towards swing and intraday trade setups.","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/author\/nevillehornsey\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24780"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24780\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}