{"id":21963,"date":"2022-02-07T12:07:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-07T12:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?p=21963"},"modified":"2022-02-07T21:36:35","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T21:36:35","slug":"us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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US Dollar Index Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Friday’s non-farm payroll data also included employment data, which is up 4.6% y\/y, but still 1.4% lower than the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Average hourly earnings growth was up 5.7% y\/y and non-supervisory workers\u2019 wages up by 6.9%.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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The data points to a US economy that is growing very fast, and that the labour market is very strong. Unless you look at the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model which shows GDP falling towards zero. Thursday\u2019s CPI data is the week’s focus and headline inflation above 7% will be all over FinTwit and the MSM. I am now expecting the Fed and government to come up with a positive spin on this, but most voters will be shocked at how fast inflation is rising and worried about the impact on how far their wages stretch in the coming months. We’re beyond the base effects of the lockdowns, so this is all about the continued supply chain disruptions and fallout from the stimulus cheques.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rapidly rising inflation as seen in the core CPI, which removes the volatility of energy and food from the inflation reading will lead to a decline in the Manufacturing industry. So if this week’s CPI number is again higher, what we don’t want is for the next US ISM Manufacturing PMI to come in towards 50 or below. If that happens, we need to buckle in for a rough ride.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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$94.60 on the US dollar index<\/a> is a significant low and the euro will play a big part in whether the US dollar index rises or falls ahead of the US CPI. The DXY doesn’t necessarily have a tight correlation to the US CPI or core CPI data but, higher inflation will add weight to the calls for the Fed to do a 50bps rate hike in March. Which in itself is bullish for the yields and detrimental to the bonds and will encourage foreign investors to park their money in a higher yielding US dollar, so effectively bidding it higher.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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See real-time quotes<\/a> provided by our partner.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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On an H4 chart I have added an Andrews Pitchfork which highlights the possible upper and lower bands of a descending channel. I have added this as we need to consider that there is a possibility the greenback has been overbought and is declining as inflation is also detrimental to the currency in the longer term. Money becomes worth-less as inflation erodes purchasing power. But as inflation is currently affecting every currency in some way more rapidly than in previous months maybe the US dollar is a better bet than the others.<\/p>

Should the DXY get above the $97.50 and previous swing high I will be targeting the $98 price level and beyond as there is little market structure that will act as resistance.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US Dollar Index Analysis Friday’s non-farm payroll data also included employment data, which is up 4.6% y\/y, but still 1.4% lower than the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Average hourly earnings growth was up 5.7% y\/y and non-supervisory workers\u2019 wages up by 6.9%. The data points to a US economy that is growing very fast, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":21965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[154,42,102,67,324],"yoast_head":"\nUS CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc - Youtrading UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar\ufffc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Biden is quick to tell everyone that he has created more jobs than any of the recent US Presidents and that the previous administration created the majority of the $30trln national debt pile. What we all know is that the US economy had been doing extremely well prior to the devastating effects of COVID-19, so it seems a little obtuse to use stats in this political way when we all really understand the real problems. The US CPI data this week will again be higher, and it will add to the calls for the Fed to act with at least 50bps in rate hikes at the March meeting. What we may see soon after is a recession as predicted by the falling ISM PMI data and the Feds own Atlanta GDPNow data. The US dollar will benefit from a carry trade against all the currencies with ZIRP or NIRP.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar\ufffc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Youtrading UK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/gettyimages-525016268.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"645\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"President Biden is quick to tell everyone that he has created more jobs than any of the recent US Presidents and that the previous administration created the majority of the $30trln national debt pile. What we all know is that the US economy had been doing extremely well prior to the devastating effects of COVID-19, so it seems a little obtuse to use stats in this political way when we all really understand the real problems. The US CPI data this week will again be higher, and it will add to the calls for the Fed to act with at least 50bps in rate hikes at the March meeting. What we may see soon after is a recession as predicted by the falling ISM PMI data and the Feds own Atlanta GDPNow data. The US dollar will benefit from a carry trade against all the currencies with ZIRP or NIRP.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neville Hornsey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\"},\"headline\":\"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/\"},\"wordCount\":484,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"DXY\",\"Fed\",\"Interest rates\",\"US Dollar\",\"Yields\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Index\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/\",\"name\":\"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc - Youtrading UK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Youtrading UK\",\"description\":\"Leaders in Trader Training\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"YouTrading\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg\",\"width\":2531,\"height\":570,\"caption\":\"YouTrading\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85\",\"name\":\"Neville Hornsey\",\"description\":\"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. Neville has worked for several brokerages and prop firms, specialising in the Foreign exchange and Futures markets and blends technical analysis with fundamentals, with a bias towards swing and intraday trade setups.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/author\/nevillehornsey\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc - Youtrading UK","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar\ufffc\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar","og_description":"President Biden is quick to tell everyone that he has created more jobs than any of the recent US Presidents and that the previous administration created the majority of the $30trln national debt pile. What we all know is that the US economy had been doing extremely well prior to the devastating effects of COVID-19, so it seems a little obtuse to use stats in this political way when we all really understand the real problems. The US CPI data this week will again be higher, and it will add to the calls for the Fed to act with at least 50bps in rate hikes at the March meeting. What we may see soon after is a recession as predicted by the falling ISM PMI data and the Feds own Atlanta GDPNow data. The US dollar will benefit from a carry trade against all the currencies with ZIRP or NIRP.","og_url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar\ufffc\/","og_site_name":"Youtrading UK","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/","article_published_time":"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":645,"url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/gettyimages-525016268.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Neville Hornsey","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar","twitter_description":"President Biden is quick to tell everyone that he has created more jobs than any of the recent US Presidents and that the previous administration created the majority of the $30trln national debt pile. What we all know is that the US economy had been doing extremely well prior to the devastating effects of COVID-19, so it seems a little obtuse to use stats in this political way when we all really understand the real problems. The US CPI data this week will again be higher, and it will add to the calls for the Fed to act with at least 50bps in rate hikes at the March meeting. What we may see soon after is a recession as predicted by the falling ISM PMI data and the Feds own Atlanta GDPNow data. The US dollar will benefit from a carry trade against all the currencies with ZIRP or NIRP.","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Neville Hornsey","Estimated reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/"},"author":{"name":"Neville Hornsey","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85"},"headline":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc","datePublished":"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/"},"wordCount":484,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization"},"keywords":["DXY","Fed","Interest rates","US Dollar","Yields"],"articleSection":["Index"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/","name":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc - Youtrading UK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-02-07T12:07:00+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-07T21:36:35+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/us-cpi-data-likely-to-boost-the-us-dollar%ef%bf%bc\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"US CPI data likely to boost the US dollar\ufffc"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/","name":"Youtrading UK","description":"Leaders in Trader Training","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#organization","name":"YouTrading","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Logo-Youtrading-2020_preto.svg","width":2531,"height":570,"caption":"YouTrading"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/YouTradingEnglish\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/youtrading_english\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCc22BNolZpSd33lXc8utUvg"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/youtrading.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/95b20558021997bd74f4db43fabddf85","name":"Neville Hornsey","description":"Neville Hornsey holds a BA Honours 2.1 in Professional Media and has been a professional trader since 2007. 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