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The price of wheat looks set to explode into and much-higher trading range, as the fundamentals and technical behind the commodity are starting to appear increasingly bullish.
Wheat has been on a major tear higher since the start of the summer, with the price of wheat rallying from $450.00 to $640.00. The news that a new strain of COVID-19 has been found in the UK could be the next major bullish catalyst for wheat prices.
Many national borders likely to close if the new mutation of COVID-19 spreads across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the United States. UK PM Boris Johnson has recently stated that Britain may face food shortage problems due to other countries closing their border and stopping ships and freights entering the UK. This may cause spculators to conclude that food price may be about to rise of the mutation spreads to other countries.
Historically, energy prices, weather, wages, speculation, and the U.S. dollar have been key drivers of the wheat market. However, developed global economies such as the UK have not had to deal with food shortages since World War II.
Should we see speculators moving into the market, and making large bets that food prices are going to rise, the price of Wheat could be set to trade much higher over the coming weeks and months.
Additionally, commodities have risen during recent QE programmes from the Federal Reserve. The December policy meeting clearly stated that QE4 will be ongoing until the U.S. economy shows consistent signs of economic recovery.
A new strain of the COVID-19 virus would almost certainly underpin more central bank bond buying and stimulus packages. Also, the wheat charts look extremely bullish at the moment, and are also alluding to strong short and medium-term gains for the price of wheat.
Wheat Short-Term Technical Analysis
As mentioned previously, the technicasl for wheat are extremely bullish at the moment, and are suggested that an explosive upside move could take place at any time.
Lower time frame analysis is showing that a falling broadening wedge pattern has formed, with wheat prices now testing towards the top of the wedge pattern. Typically, falling broadening wedge patterns indicate periods of consolidation inside the wedge, followed by an expolosive breakout to the upside.
Source by ActivTrader.
According to technical analysis the bullish breakout spot from the falling wedge pattern is located around the $620.00 level. Looking at the size of the pattern, wheat prices could be set to surge towards the $700.00 area.
To the downside, a series of rejections from the top of the broadening falling wedge pattern could cause technical selling back towards either the $590.00 or $560.00 support regions.
Wheat Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart, a massive inverted head and shoulders pattern is clearly visible, with the bullish breakout above the neckline of the pattern already underway.
According to the size of the bullish reversal pattenr, wheat prices could be set to rally towards the $750.00, and possibly the $800.00 resistance zone.
Source by ActivTrader.
Any technical pullbacks are expected to find strong buying interest from the neckline of the bullish pattern, around the $595.00 level.
Should we see a sustained decline below the $595.00 level, then the $580.00 and $565.00 levels offer formidable medium-term technical support for the price of wheat.
