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Market Wrap
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From the European session lows of 1.24350 to the London session highs of 1.25920, the GBPUSD looks set to continue higher into the middle of the US session. The London session started with the United Kingdom Services PMI Business Activity Index falling to 53.4 in May, a decrease of 5.5 index points from the previous month. In Europe, investors’ confidence appears to have slightly improved in June, based on Sentix’s latest monthly survey. However, seasonal, and price-adjusted new factory orders in Germany fell by 2.7% in April compared to the previous month. The rise of the GBPUSD accelerated from the US open as the US trade deficit shrank slightly less than expected but markedly down from the previous month. The US dollar index is still trading above the 9-period EMA and above the $102.20 level and looking back on the daily GBPUSD chart, today’s price action has only confirmed that the short sellers this morning were trapped but that everyone else is still stuck in the trading range from the June 1st candle.
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The EURUSD has been in a tight range for 11 days now as the 1.0800 appears to be solid resistance and the 1.0600 is support. Price action below the daily 200 EMA suggest that there is more probability of a move lower but with the RSI above 50 there has been more higher closes than lower closes in the last few weeks.
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The daily GBPJPY chart has been ripping for several days now and is approaching a significant swing high with no sign of selling pressure coming from within the potential supply zone. The RSI is rising to the overbought level but that could signal a potential continuation trade higher as the RSI can remain overbought for a long time.
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The m30 chart shows that the London breakout of the Asia-Pac range would have hit the risk reward ratio of 1:1 at the time of writing, with 167.90 being the RRR of 1:2 target.
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Despite lower predictions for global economic growth for 2022 from the World Bank Group, oil futures rose more than 1% this afternoon as investors worried about rising stagflation. The definition of stagflation is persistent high inflation, combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. Currently the inflation we are seeing is due to a supply chain shock, so the worry is that people will lose their jobs and demand will be removed as the monetary policies by the Fed and US Treasury continue to hit people’s pockets and corporate profits. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its latest weekly report on the stocks of crude oil in the US later today.
